Production-grade TEI modeling for AI support deflection — covering direct savings, churn economics, engineering reinvestment, and risk-adjusted ROI.
Scenario mode: Expected Baseline. Adjusted deflections: 5,400 vs. target 5,400.
$16,267,697
Savings + Churn Preserved + Eng. Value
6.75
1,080 hrs/mo reinvestable capacity
203246.2%
Scenario-discounted on Base Case assumptions
Core volume and cost drivers
Churn economics & engineering reinvestment
Production AI systems require compliance and resilience layers. These costs are often omitted from demo-grade ROI calculators, creating CFO credibility risk.
Monthly Overhead Allocation
Adjust variance assumptions to model scenario ranges for board presentations
$1,169,297
$97,441/mo operational delta
$13,996,800
$1,166,400/mo preserved CLV
$91,800
6.75 FTE equivalents freed
$3
37.9% of token budget wasted
$0.46
vs. $18.50 fully-loaded human
0.1 mo
To recover implementation CapEx
$9
$2,459 all-in with infra
78.2%
Month-over-month hybrid vs. human
Includes CapEx at M1 · Base Case scenario applied
Resolved value vs. sunk escalation waste vs. infrastructure overhead
Latency (s) vs. cost per session (¢) — lower-left is optimal
Full economic value stack — operational + strategic
Direct Savings
$1,169,297/yr
7.2% of TEI
Churn Revenue
$13,996,800/yr
86.0% of TEI
Eng. Value
$1,101,600/yr
6.8% of TEI
1. Sunk Token Realism
Failed escalations consume tokens at avgTurnsBeforeEscalation depth with no deflection value. Omitting this overstates ROI by 15–40% in typical deployments.
2. Churn-CLV Bridge
Churn preservation assumes poor AI resolution (1 - CSAT score) is a proxy for churn signal at CLV value. Churn sensitivity multiplier bounds optimistic vs. conservative retention assumptions.
3. FTE Reclaimed Formula
FTEs Reclaimed = (Deflections × AHT in hours) ÷ 160 productive hours/month. This is a capacity metric, not a headcount reduction recommendation.
4. Production Infra TCO
PII redaction, observability, and HA costs are surfaced explicitly because they are systematically excluded from vendor ROI calculators. In HIPAA/GDPR contexts these are mandatory, not optional.
5. Scenario Discount Methodology
Conservative applies 0.75× multiplier to deflection rate. Optimistic applies 1.20×. Accuracy Variance adds an additive delta on top of scenario mode.
6. Risk-Adjusted ROI
Formula: (TEI Annual × Scenario Multiplier − CapEx) ÷ CapEx × 100. Incorporates scenario mode and accuracy variance as compounding discount factors for board-level confidence intervals.